03/14/06 Where Have All The Protests Gone?

On a late winter evening three years ago, with war only days away, several thousand people gathered in Green Lake park. They took positions along the edge of the lake and held hands, forming a human chain that encircled the lake, about 3 miles in circumference.

The gesture was an act of solidarity against the invasion of Iraq, which the demonstrators and thousands more like them around the country failed to prevent. Some vowed to return every Sunday until the war ended.

To that end, Ken Slusher, 58, is still there, staking a spot in the park, a few feet from the street, wearing a wide-brimmed hat for the weather, holding a sign calling for peace. A large percentage of drivers honk in support, lending a friendly wave or a thumbs-up.

But on a recent Sunday, Slusher, who volunteered for the Army during the Vietnam War, was one of only five demonstrators, an average turnout these days for what has been one of the stoutest running acts of protest in Seattle, a place as hospitable as any to acts of anti-war activism, where John Kerry received 80 percent of the vote in the last presidential election.

"What's happening here?" Slusher said. "People in South Africa joined together and literally sang apartheid away. ... People here, they want to complain, but they won't come out and do something about it."

The low numbers of protesters, here and elsewhere in the country, don't tell the entire story. The visible opposition to the war is impassioned, unflagging, and rooted in a sentiment shared by the mainstream: Polls show that skepticism and discomfort about the events and progress in Iraq have never been greater.

But even as the war and occupation reach the three-year mark, even as opposition to the war has solidified, it has not translated into a true, mainstream, anti-war movement. Local demonstrations are numerous but small. Some have fallen by the wayside.

"The movement hasn't caught fire," said Eric Larson, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corp., a think tank. "Part of the reason that Americans are ambivalent is they still feel it's very important to get this (the war) right, and don't want to completely withdraw support. ... They're at the point of ambivalence rather than opposition."

Larson's point is reflected in a weather-beaten sign, planted on a street corner along an affluent, south Seattle boulevard. The paint is blistered. Moss grows on its top edge. It asks questions, rather than making demands: "Iraq. Are we sure? Why now?" 

'So subdued'

"It (the activism) has been so subdued lately," Larson said. "What will be interesting is to see what happens on March 18 or March 19 and if the demonstrators come off as mainstream, if they are moms and dads, if they are from middle America, or if they come off as being on the fringes."

Various demonstrations around the country are being planned around the three-year anniversary on Monday. There will be vigils, concerts and marches. But a true mass movement remains to be seen. Activists left in the vanguard are sure of their convictions but few in number.

"Clearly for those families whose loved ones have died, the war cuts very close to home, but the war has not cut very close to home for most Americans," said Lawrence Wittner, a history professor at SUNY Albany. "The absence of the draft has eased the pressure on young men and to some extent has led to greater passivity on college campuses."

Casualties in Iraq, while high, don't approach the number in Vietnam. Taxes are down; the stock market is up; gas prices have fallen.

At demonstrations, opposition to the war may become a springboard for criticism of the handling of Hurricane Katrina, domestic spying, tax cuts, global debt, and the military prison at Guantanamo Bay.

Cindy Sheehan, whose son was killed in Iraq, has become the face of the anti-war movement.

"What she did was very simple and it resonated with people," said Leslie Cagan, director of United for Peace and Justice, a national coalition of groups protesting the war. "She went to the president's front door and said, I'd like you to answer some questions.' And the national press corps was there. ..."

One woman does not constitute a movement, however, and while Sheehan has garnered widespread attention, the masses have not necessarily followed. Still, the lack of drama associated with the anti-war effort belies the real effect of day-to-day activism, Cagan said.

"It's not sexy, but it's the backbone of any movement," she said. "It's helping people question the war and that's consistent with what you see in the polls every month."